One of the most significant findings was the difference between "Global South" and "Global North" respondents' answer to a question concerning the "current state of evangelical Christianity in their country." Those from the South (Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, & East Asia) collectively felt that the state of evangelicalism is good (25%) to moderately good (57%). In contrast, of the Northern leaders (from Europe, North America, Japan, Australia, & New Zealand), 13% ranked the state of evangelicalism as good and 60% as moderately good. When asked to evaluate the "progress of evangelicalism over the past five years," 50% of Southern leaders felt that the state of evangelicalism had improved in their country over the last five years. Only 27% of Northern leaders felt it was better in their countries. Finally, when they were asked about the "future outlook for evangelical Christianity" in their nations, 71% of the Southern respondents were optimistic about the future while only 44% of the Northerners felt optimistic. By way of contrast, just 17% of American respondents felt that the state of evangelicalism has improved in the U. S., and only 31% were optimistic about the future.
Evangelicalism has progressed: 50% of Southerners, 27% of Northerners, and 17% of Americans agreed.
Evangelicalism's future is good: 71% of Southerners, 44% of Northerners, and 31% of Americans were optimistic.
The Southern optimism and Northern pessimism revealed in these numbers point to possibly the most important development in the global church over the last two or three generations, namely the international church's demographic shift from Europe and North America to the Southern world. Southern Christianity is growing at a rapid pace while it is dwindling in much of the North. There are, for example, more Anglicans in Nigeria than in the United Kingdom (source). Even so, the lack of optimism among U.S. evangelical leaders at the Lausanne Conference is notable. It may reflect the sense that the evangelical movement's almost astounding growth has finally peaked and may even be receding. Research indicates that evangelical young people drop away from the church once they leave home at about the same rate as mainline kids. We saw here in a previous post that the Southern Baptists have begun, modestly, to share in the same statistical decline experienced by mainline denominations. Recent studies all indicate that the number of "unchurched" is growing, especially among younger people.
Now, objectively speaking, Christianity in general and evangelicalism in particular continue to have a huge presence in the United States and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. But, something feels different. The whole church is loosing its privileged place in American life. Not only has it failed to prevent Sunday morning soccer, but even many of its most faithful members, when faced with the choice, choose soccer over worship. Something is changing—even for evangelicals.
